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Prediction for CME (2025-02-26T06:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-02-26T06:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/37563/-1
CME Note: CME first seen in the West by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2025-02-26T06:48Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 in later frames. This CME is not clearly visible in STEREO A COR2. The source of this event is a filament eruption centered at approx. S10W25 exhibiting a strong Westward deflection. This filament is visible in SDO AIA and STEREO A EUVI 304, along with dimming and post eruptive arcades seen in SDO AIA 94, 193 and STEREO A EUVI 195.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-02-28T04:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50226
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 26 Feb 2025, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST

Coronal mass ejections: A wide westward coronal mass ejection (CME) associated to the M3.6 flare produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 408 (NOAA Active Region 3998) on Feb 25 was first visible in the LASCO/C2 imagery around 12:30 UTC on Feb 25. The CME is estimated to miss the Earth . A filament located between 15 and 30 degrees west from the central meridian has erupted around 06:00 UTC on Feb 26. An associated narrow westward CME is now visible in the LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery and is currently being analysed for any potential impact at Earth. No other Earth-directed CME are observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Lead Time: 35.03 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2025-02-26T16:58Z

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